Quantitative radar scanning 25 ultra-liquid leaders across rolling 2-year back-data.
Identifies setups with the highest statistical touch probability, volatility compression, and asymmetric edge.
1. Contract Selection
Target COIN $137.00 Put, expiring in 14 to 20 Calendar Days (~2 weeks) (gives room for theta).
2. Order Entry Rule
Enter via Limit Order near the contract ask during regular trading hours. Avoid opening immediately at the 9:30 AM open spike; wait 15 minutes for spreads to settle.
3. Profit Target (Take-Profit)
Set GTC Limit Sell on the option contract at +35% to +45% profit, OR close the trade immediately when COIN touches $134.44 intraday. Do not hold past the touch target hoping for extra gain.
4. Risk Management (Stop-Loss)
Exit for loss if the option contract drops -35% to -40%, OR if 6 trading days pass without directional follow-through (time-stop).
1. Contract Selection
Target AMD $472.50 Put, expiring in 14 to 20 Calendar Days (~2 weeks) (gives room for theta).
2. Order Entry Rule
Enter via Limit Order near the contract ask during regular trading hours. Avoid opening immediately at the 9:30 AM open spike; wait 15 minutes for spreads to settle.
3. Profit Target (Take-Profit)
Set GTC Limit Sell on the option contract at +35% to +45% profit, OR close the trade immediately when AMD touches $465.42 intraday. Do not hold past the touch target hoping for extra gain.
4. Risk Management (Stop-Loss)
Exit for loss if the option contract drops -35% to -40%, OR if 6 trading days pass without directional follow-through (time-stop).
1. Contract Selection
Target ORCL $120.00 Put, expiring in 14 to 20 Calendar Days (~2 weeks) (gives room for theta).
2. Order Entry Rule
Enter via Limit Order near the contract ask during regular trading hours. Avoid opening immediately at the 9:30 AM open spike; wait 15 minutes for spreads to settle.
3. Profit Target (Take-Profit)
Set GTC Limit Sell on the option contract at +35% to +45% profit, OR close the trade immediately when ORCL touches $117.72 intraday. Do not hold past the touch target hoping for extra gain.
4. Risk Management (Stop-Loss)
Exit for loss if the option contract drops -35% to -40%, OR if 6 trading days pass without directional follow-through (time-stop).
1. Contract Selection
Target CRM $227.50 Put, expiring in 14 to 20 Calendar Days (~2 weeks) (gives room for theta).
2. Order Entry Rule
Enter via Limit Order near the contract ask during regular trading hours. Avoid opening immediately at the 9:30 AM open spike; wait 15 minutes for spreads to settle.
3. Profit Target (Take-Profit)
Set GTC Limit Sell on the option contract at +35% to +45% profit, OR close the trade immediately when CRM touches $224.27 intraday. Do not hold past the touch target hoping for extra gain.
4. Risk Management (Stop-Loss)
Exit for loss if the option contract drops -35% to -40%, OR if 6 trading days pass without directional follow-through (time-stop).
1. Contract Selection
Target UBER $66.00 Put, expiring in 14 to 20 Calendar Days (~2 weeks) (gives room for theta).
2. Order Entry Rule
Enter via Limit Order near the contract ask during regular trading hours. Avoid opening immediately at the 9:30 AM open spike; wait 15 minutes for spreads to settle.
3. Profit Target (Take-Profit)
Set GTC Limit Sell on the option contract at +35% to +45% profit, OR close the trade immediately when UBER touches $64.81 intraday. Do not hold past the touch target hoping for extra gain.
4. Risk Management (Stop-Loss)
Exit for loss if the option contract drops -35% to -40%, OR if 6 trading days pass without directional follow-through (time-stop).
1. Contract Selection
Target NVDA $202.50 Put, expiring in 14 to 20 Calendar Days (~2 weeks) (gives room for theta).
2. Order Entry Rule
Enter via Limit Order near the contract ask during regular trading hours. Avoid opening immediately at the 9:30 AM open spike; wait 15 minutes for spreads to settle.
3. Profit Target (Take-Profit)
Set GTC Limit Sell on the option contract at +35% to +45% profit, OR close the trade immediately when NVDA touches $198.91 intraday. Do not hold past the touch target hoping for extra gain.
4. Risk Management (Stop-Loss)
Exit for loss if the option contract drops -35% to -40%, OR if 6 trading days pass without directional follow-through (time-stop).
1. Contract Selection
Target SMCI $31.00 Put, expiring in 14 to 20 Calendar Days (~2 weeks) (gives room for theta).
2. Order Entry Rule
Enter via Limit Order near the contract ask during regular trading hours. Avoid opening immediately at the 9:30 AM open spike; wait 15 minutes for spreads to settle.
3. Profit Target (Take-Profit)
Set GTC Limit Sell on the option contract at +35% to +45% profit, OR close the trade immediately when SMCI touches $30.41 intraday. Do not hold past the touch target hoping for extra gain.
4. Risk Management (Stop-Loss)
Exit for loss if the option contract drops -35% to -40%, OR if 6 trading days pass without directional follow-through (time-stop).
1. Contract Selection
Target TSLA $400.00 Put, expiring in 14 to 20 Calendar Days (~2 weeks) (gives room for theta).
2. Order Entry Rule
Enter via Limit Order near the contract ask during regular trading hours. Avoid opening immediately at the 9:30 AM open spike; wait 15 minutes for spreads to settle.
3. Profit Target (Take-Profit)
Set GTC Limit Sell on the option contract at +35% to +45% profit, OR close the trade immediately when TSLA touches $393.53 intraday. Do not hold past the touch target hoping for extra gain.
4. Risk Management (Stop-Loss)
Exit for loss if the option contract drops -35% to -40%, OR if 6 trading days pass without directional follow-through (time-stop).
1. Contract Selection
Target AVGO $322.50 Put, expiring in 14 to 20 Calendar Days (~2 weeks) (gives room for theta).
2. Order Entry Rule
Enter via Limit Order near the contract ask during regular trading hours. Avoid opening immediately at the 9:30 AM open spike; wait 15 minutes for spreads to settle.
3. Profit Target (Take-Profit)
Set GTC Limit Sell on the option contract at +35% to +45% profit, OR close the trade immediately when AVGO touches $317.18 intraday. Do not hold past the touch target hoping for extra gain.
4. Risk Management (Stop-Loss)
Exit for loss if the option contract drops -35% to -40%, OR if 6 trading days pass without directional follow-through (time-stop).
1. Contract Selection
Target PLTR $180.00 Put, expiring in 14 to 20 Calendar Days (~2 weeks) (gives room for theta).
2. Order Entry Rule
Enter via Limit Order near the contract ask during regular trading hours. Avoid opening immediately at the 9:30 AM open spike; wait 15 minutes for spreads to settle.
3. Profit Target (Take-Profit)
Set GTC Limit Sell on the option contract at +35% to +45% profit, OR close the trade immediately when PLTR touches $177.74 intraday. Do not hold past the touch target hoping for extra gain.
4. Risk Management (Stop-Loss)
Exit for loss if the option contract drops -35% to -40%, OR if 6 trading days pass without directional follow-through (time-stop).
How to Use These Playbooks in Your Paper Account
These playbooks are quantitative simulations designed to practice systematic trading discipline without taking reckless risks.
1. Always Use Bracket Orders (OCO)
Enter your profit target (+35% to +45%) and hard stop (-35% to -40%) when opening the order. Never manage trades on raw emotion.
2. The Power of the Touch Exit
Touch probabilities are almost 2x higher than expiration close odds. Taking profit when the stock touches the target captures intraday momentum before theta decay kicks in.
3. Track Trade Edge in a Journal
Log 20 to 30 paper trades. Compare your actual win rate against the historical touch rate to verify your execution discipline.
Disclosure: Historical rolling probabilities and empirical back-data are for educational and paper trading simulation purposes only. Past frequency does not guarantee future results. Options involve substantial risk of capital loss.
