Finance

AAPL Move Probability $340.10 -4.67 (-1.4%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
47.8%
Stock touched +5.0% ($357.11) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 7 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
27.2%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.76x
You are 1.8x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±6.6%
$317.61 — $362.59

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-10-03 to 2026-11-02). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-19.7% to -17.1%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -18.4% -17.1% to -14.5%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -14.5% to -11.9%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) -11.9% to -9.3%: 17 occurrences (3.3%) -10.6% -9.3% to -6.6%: 19 occurrences (3.7%) -6.6% to -4.0%: 51 occurrences (10.0%) -4.0% to -1.4%: 67 occurrences (13.2%) -2.7% -1.4% to +1.2%: 74 occurrences (14.6%) +1.2% to +3.9%: 87 occurrences (17.1%) +3.9% to +6.5%: 75 occurrences (14.8%) 5.2% +6.5% to +9.1%: 72 occurrences (14.2%) +9.1% to +11.7%: 25 occurrences (4.9%) +11.7% to +14.4%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) 13.1% +14.4% to +17.0%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +17.0% to +19.6%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +19.6% to +22.2%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 20.9%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 47.8% 27.2% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 6.7% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.19) and kurtosis (9.92).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 46.1% 23.0% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 48.6% 30.6% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (173 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 28.1%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 15.4%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 23.2%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-45% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +1.9%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +8.5%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -6.4%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +22.2%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -19.7%