Finance

UNH Move Probability $416.86 -2.61 (-0.6%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
2.7%
Stock touched +5.0% ($437.70) at least once during 1 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 1 of 1
Expiration Close Probability
1.7%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 1-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.56x
You are 1.6x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±2.7%
$405.41 — $428.31

Historical 1-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 1-day percentage returns over 521 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-22.4% to -20.2%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -21.3% -20.2% to -18.1%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -18.1% to -15.9%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -15.9% to -13.8%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -14.8% -13.8% to -11.6%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -11.6% to -9.5%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -9.5% to -7.3%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -8.4% -7.3% to -5.2%: 8 occurrences (1.5%) -5.2% to -3.0%: 10 occurrences (1.9%) -3.0% to -0.9%: 122 occurrences (23.4%) -2.0% -0.9% to +1.3%: 249 occurrences (47.8%) +1.3% to +3.4%: 103 occurrences (19.8%) +3.4% to +5.5%: 16 occurrences (3.1%) 4.5% +5.5% to +7.7%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +7.7% to +9.8%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +9.8% to +12.0%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 10.9%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 2.7% 1.7% Model-free reality across 521 historical 1-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 0.1% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-3.11) and kurtosis (26.26).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 7.6% 3.8% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 2.3% 0.9% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (350 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 43.6%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 27.4%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 27.1%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-37% vs baseline)

1-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.0%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +2.4%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -2.1%
  • Max Historical Gain (1d): +12.0%
  • Max Historical Loss (1d): -22.4%