Finance

UNH Move Probability $395.51 -11.41 (-2.8%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
55.5%
Stock touched +5.0% ($415.29) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 6 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
29.7%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.87x
You are 1.9x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±10.3%
$354.79 — $436.23

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-10-03 to 2026-11-02). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-34.5% to -30.5%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) -32.5% -30.5% to -26.5%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -26.5% to -22.6%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) -22.6% to -18.6%: 16 occurrences (3.1%) -20.6% -18.6% to -14.6%: 19 occurrences (3.7%) -14.6% to -10.6%: 25 occurrences (4.9%) -10.6% to -6.7%: 30 occurrences (5.9%) -8.7% -6.7% to -2.7%: 71 occurrences (14.0%) -2.7% to +1.3%: 94 occurrences (18.5%) +1.3% to +5.2%: 91 occurrences (17.9%) 3.3% +5.2% to +9.2%: 69 occurrences (13.6%) +9.2% to +13.2%: 28 occurrences (5.5%) +13.2% to +17.2%: 24 occurrences (4.7%) 15.2% +17.2% to +21.1%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) +21.1% to +25.1%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +25.1% to +29.1%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) 27.1%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 55.5% 29.7% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 17.6% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-3.08) and kurtosis (25.95).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 63.6% 31.8% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 53.7% 24.9% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (354 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 43.7%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 30.5%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 27.2%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-30% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.6%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +12.7%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -14.9%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +29.1%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -34.5%