Finance

TEM Move Probability $80.32 +8.10 (+11.2%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
76.0%
Stock touched +5.0% ($84.34) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
43.7%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.74x
You are 1.7x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±21.5%
$63.03 — $97.61

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-10-03 to 2026-11-02). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-47.2% to -38.1%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) -42.6% -38.1% to -29.0%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) -29.0% to -19.9%: 42 occurrences (8.3%) -19.9% to -10.8%: 88 occurrences (17.3%) -15.4% -10.8% to -1.7%: 84 occurrences (16.5%) -1.7% to +7.4%: 76 occurrences (15.0%) +7.4% to +16.5%: 76 occurrences (15.0%) 11.9% +16.5% to +25.6%: 56 occurrences (11.0%) +25.6% to +34.6%: 23 occurrences (4.5%) +34.6% to +43.7%: 18 occurrences (3.5%) 39.2% +43.7% to +52.8%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) +52.8% to +61.9%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +61.9% to +71.0%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 66.5% +71.0% to +80.1%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +80.1% to +89.2%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +89.2% to +98.3%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 93.7%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 76.0% 43.7% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 34.8% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.56) and kurtosis (3.06).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 82.1% 41.0% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 75.6% 46.3% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (328 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 91.3%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 96.4%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 76.4%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +1.3%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +30.5%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -21.4%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +98.3%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -47.2%