Finance

SLV Move Probability $52.26 +0.13 (+0.3%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to SLV Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
6.7%
Stock touched +5.0% ($54.87) at least once during 1 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 1 of 1
Expiration Close Probability
4.6%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 1-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.46x
You are 1.5x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±3.1%
$50.62 — $53.90

Historical 1-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 1-day percentage returns over 521 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-28.8% to -26.4%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -27.6% -26.4% to -24.0%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -24.0% to -21.7%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -21.7% to -19.3%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -20.5% -19.3% to -17.0%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -17.0% to -14.6%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -14.6% to -12.2%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -13.4% -12.2% to -9.9%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -9.9% to -7.5%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -7.5% to -5.1%: 11 occurrences (2.1%) -6.3% -5.1% to -2.8%: 40 occurrences (7.7%) -2.8% to -0.4%: 128 occurrences (24.6%) -0.4% to +1.9%: 223 occurrences (42.8%) 0.8% +1.9% to +4.3%: 82 occurrences (15.7%) +4.3% to +6.7%: 22 occurrences (4.2%) +6.7% to +9.0%: 8 occurrences (1.5%) 7.9%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 6.7% 4.6% Model-free reality across 521 historical 1-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 0.1% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-2.98) and kurtosis (28.22).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 11.9% 5.9% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 2.9% 1.7% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (238 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 49.7%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 37.3%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 28.5%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-25% vs baseline)

1-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.3%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +3.3%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -2.9%
  • Max Historical Gain (1d): +9.0%
  • Max Historical Loss (1d): -28.8%