Finance

SLV Move Probability $52.26 +0.13 (+0.3%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
58.3%
Stock touched +5.0% ($54.87) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
35.0%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.66x
You are 1.7x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±11.7%
$46.14 — $58.38

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-34.7% to -29.3%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -32.0% -29.3% to -23.9%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -23.9% to -18.5%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) -18.5% to -13.1%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) -15.8% -13.1% to -7.7%: 53 occurrences (10.4%) -7.7% to -2.4%: 77 occurrences (15.2%) -2.4% to +3.0%: 120 occurrences (23.6%) 0.3% +3.0% to +8.4%: 109 occurrences (21.5%) +8.4% to +13.8%: 61 occurrences (12.0%) +13.8% to +19.2%: 31 occurrences (6.1%) 16.5% +19.2% to +24.6%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) +24.6% to +30.0%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) +30.0% to +35.3%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 32.6% +35.3% to +40.7%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +40.7% to +46.1%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +46.1% to +51.5%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 48.8%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 58.3% 35.0% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 18.1% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-2.98) and kurtosis (28.22).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 67.7% 33.8% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 51.6% 34.2% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (225 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 49.7%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 37.3%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 28.5%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-25% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +1.8%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +14.9%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -10.5%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +51.5%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -34.7%