Finance

IREN Move Probability $21.64 +3.62 (+20.1%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
84.0%
Stock touched +5.0% ($22.72) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
46.9%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.79x
You are 1.8x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±25.0%
$16.23 — $27.05

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 507 historical windows (2024-10-10 to 2026-11-06). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-49.2% to -41.1%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -45.1% -41.1% to -33.0%: 18 occurrences (3.6%) -33.0% to -24.9%: 39 occurrences (7.7%) -24.9% to -16.8%: 43 occurrences (8.5%) -20.8% -16.8% to -8.7%: 51 occurrences (10.1%) -8.7% to -0.6%: 74 occurrences (14.6%) -0.6% to +7.5%: 56 occurrences (11.0%) 3.5% +7.5% to +15.6%: 44 occurrences (8.7%) +15.6% to +23.7%: 54 occurrences (10.7%) +23.7% to +31.8%: 37 occurrences (7.3%) 27.7% +31.8% to +39.9%: 26 occurrences (5.1%) +39.9% to +48.0%: 30 occurrences (5.9%) +48.0% to +56.1%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) 52.0% +56.1% to +64.1%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) +64.1% to +72.2%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +72.2% to +80.3%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) 76.3%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 84.0% 46.9% Model-free reality across 507 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 40.8% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.08) and kurtosis (0.95).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 84.5% 42.3% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 80.9% 36.6% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (309 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 106.1%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 145.0%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 87.2%
  • Vol Trend: Expanded (+37% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +3.0%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +42.3%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -27.0%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +80.3%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -49.2%