Finance

HD Move Probability $314.10 -1.06 (-0.3%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
33.5%
Stock touched +5.0% ($329.80) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 7 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
19.1%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.75x
You are 1.8x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±5.7%
$296.25 — $331.94

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-13.3% to -11.6%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -12.4% -11.6% to -10.0%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) -10.0% to -8.3%: 35 occurrences (6.9%) -8.3% to -6.6%: 40 occurrences (7.9%) -7.5% -6.6% to -5.0%: 43 occurrences (8.5%) -5.0% to -3.3%: 42 occurrences (8.3%) -3.3% to -1.7%: 45 occurrences (8.9%) -2.5% -1.7% to -0.0%: 52 occurrences (10.2%) -0.0% to +1.7%: 59 occurrences (11.6%) +1.7% to +3.3%: 41 occurrences (8.1%) 2.5% +3.3% to +5.0%: 42 occurrences (8.3%) +5.0% to +6.6%: 41 occurrences (8.1%) +6.6% to +8.3%: 29 occurrences (5.7%) 7.5% +8.3% to +9.9%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) +9.9% to +11.6%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) +11.6% to +13.3%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 12.4%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 33.5% 19.1% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 17.0% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.27) and kurtosis (1.1).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 39.1% 19.5% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 36.4% 22.1% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (407 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 24.1%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 24.7%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 20.1%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.4%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +6.8%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -8.0%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +13.3%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -13.3%