Finance

CRWG Move Probability $10.98 +1.12 (+11.4%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
51.0%
Stock touched +5.0% ($11.53) at least once during 1 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 1 of 1
Expiration Close Probability
27.0%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 1-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.89x
You are 1.9x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±18.1%
$9.00 — $12.97

Historical 1-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 1-day percentage returns over 296 historical windows (2025-08-12 to 2026-10-15). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-38.0% to +14.1%: 267 occurrences (90.2%) -12.0% +14.1% to +66.1%: 27 occurrences (9.1%) +66.1% to +118.2%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +118.2% to +170.3%: 1 occurrences (0.3%) 144.2% +170.3% to +222.3%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +222.3% to +274.4%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +274.4% to +326.5%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 300.4% +326.5% to +378.5%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +378.5% to +430.6%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +430.6% to +482.6%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 456.6% +482.6% to +534.7%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +534.7% to +586.8%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +586.8% to +638.8%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 612.8% +638.8% to +690.9%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +690.9% to +743.0%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +743.0% to +795.0%: 1 occurrences (0.3%) 769.0%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 51.0% 27.0% Model-free reality across 296 historical 1-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 1.4% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (6.19) and kurtosis (72.21).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 78.7% 39.4% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 53.2% 29.5% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (220 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 286.9%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 172.8%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 135.1%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-40% vs baseline)

1-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -1.3%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +13.5%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -12.7%
  • Max Historical Gain (1d): +795.0%
  • Max Historical Loss (1d): -38.0%