Finance

CRWG Move Probability $10.98 +1.12 (+11.4%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to CRWG Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
90.5%
Stock touched +5.0% ($11.53) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 1 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
45.2%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.00x
You are 2.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±67.6%
$3.56 — $18.41

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 283 historical windows (2025-08-12 to 2026-10-15). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-65.6% to +66.6%: 247 occurrences (87.3%) 0.5% +66.6% to +198.8%: 22 occurrences (7.8%) +198.8% to +331.0%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +331.0% to +463.2%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 397.1% +463.2% to +595.5%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +595.5% to +727.7%: 3 occurrences (1.1%) +727.7% to +859.9%: 1 occurrences (0.4%) 793.8% +859.9% to +992.1%: 1 occurrences (0.4%) +992.1% to +1124.3%: 2 occurrences (0.7%) +1124.3% to +1256.5%: 1 occurrences (0.4%) 1190.4% +1256.5% to +1388.7%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +1388.7% to +1520.9%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +1520.9% to +1653.1%: 2 occurrences (0.7%) 1587.0% +1653.1% to +1785.3%: 2 occurrences (0.7%) +1785.3% to +1917.5%: 1 occurrences (0.4%) +1917.5% to +2049.7%: 1 occurrences (0.4%) 1983.6%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 90.5% 45.2% Model-free reality across 283 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 8.6% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (6.19) and kurtosis (72.21).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 94.2% 47.1% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 90.4% 44.0% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (209 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 286.9%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 172.8%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 135.1%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-40% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -2.2%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +86.2%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -44.0%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +2049.7%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -65.6%