Finance

CPNG Move Probability $13.86 -0.46 (-3.2%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to CPNG Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
4.6%
Stock touched +5.0% ($14.55) at least once during 1 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 1 of 1
Expiration Close Probability
2.6%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 1-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.77x
You are 1.8x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±2.7%
$13.49 — $14.23

Historical 1-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 1-day percentage returns over 500 historical windows (2024-10-22 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-13.8% to -12.1%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -13.0% -12.1% to -10.3%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -10.3% to -8.6%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -8.6% to -6.8%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -7.7% -6.8% to -5.1%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) -5.1% to -3.4%: 33 occurrences (6.6%) -3.4% to -1.6%: 59 occurrences (11.8%) -2.5% -1.6% to +0.1%: 178 occurrences (35.6%) +0.1% to +1.9%: 134 occurrences (26.8%) +1.9% to +3.6%: 60 occurrences (12.0%) 2.7% +3.6% to +5.4%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) +5.4% to +7.1%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) +7.1% to +8.9%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 8.0% +8.9% to +10.6%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +10.6% to +12.3%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +12.3% to +14.1%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 13.2%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 4.6% 2.6% Model-free reality across 500 historical 1-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 3.8% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.27) and kurtosis (5.99).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 6.6% 3.3% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 3.4% 2.0% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (297 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 42.1%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 39.5%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 35.0%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

1-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.1%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +2.7%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -3.1%
  • Max Historical Gain (1d): +14.1%
  • Max Historical Loss (1d): -13.8%