Finance

CPNG Move Probability $13.86 -0.46 (-3.2%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
48.4%
Stock touched +5.0% ($14.55) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 5 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
23.6%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.05x
You are 2.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±9.8%
$12.50 — $15.22

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-25.7% to -22.5%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -24.1% -22.5% to -19.3%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) -19.3% to -16.2%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) -16.2% to -13.0%: 26 occurrences (5.1%) -14.6% -13.0% to -9.8%: 29 occurrences (5.7%) -9.8% to -6.6%: 53 occurrences (10.4%) -6.6% to -3.4%: 61 occurrences (12.0%) -5.0% -3.4% to -0.3%: 76 occurrences (15.0%) -0.3% to +2.9%: 81 occurrences (15.9%) +2.9% to +6.1%: 56 occurrences (11.0%) 4.5% +6.1% to +9.3%: 45 occurrences (8.9%) +9.3% to +12.4%: 20 occurrences (3.9%) +12.4% to +15.6%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) 14.0% +15.6% to +18.8%: 17 occurrences (3.3%) +18.8% to +22.0%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +22.0% to +25.2%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 23.6%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 48.4% 23.6% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 20.6% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.27) and kurtosis (6.34).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 61.9% 30.9% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 43.7% 20.7% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (295 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 41.6%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 40.5%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 33.4%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -1.0%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +10.2%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -12.9%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +25.2%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -25.7%