Finance

BKNG Move Probability $158.32 -5.62 (-3.4%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
7.7%
Stock touched +5.0% ($166.24) at least once during 2 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 2
Expiration Close Probability
4.2%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 2-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.82x
You are 1.8x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±2.9%
$153.70 — $162.94

Historical 2-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 2-day percentage returns over 520 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-10.3% to -8.9%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -9.6% -8.9% to -7.5%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -7.5% to -6.0%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) -6.0% to -4.6%: 9 occurrences (1.7%) -5.3% -4.6% to -3.2%: 35 occurrences (6.7%) -3.2% to -1.8%: 62 occurrences (11.9%) -1.8% to -0.4%: 102 occurrences (19.6%) -1.1% -0.4% to +1.0%: 127 occurrences (24.4%) +1.0% to +2.4%: 89 occurrences (17.1%) +2.4% to +3.8%: 40 occurrences (7.7%) 3.1% +3.8% to +5.2%: 24 occurrences (4.6%) +5.2% to +6.7%: 7 occurrences (1.3%) +6.7% to +8.1%: 9 occurrences (1.7%) 7.4% +8.1% to +9.5%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +9.5% to +10.9%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +10.9% to +12.3%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 11.6%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 7.7% 4.2% Model-free reality across 520 historical 2-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 4.5% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.05) and kurtosis (2.9).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 9.4% 4.7% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 8.0% 3.8% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (312 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 32.7%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 28.4%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 26.4%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

2-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.1%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +3.4%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -3.4%
  • Max Historical Gain (2d): +12.3%
  • Max Historical Loss (2d): -10.3%