Finance

BKNG Move Probability $158.32 -5.62 (-3.4%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
43.9%
Stock touched +5.0% ($166.24) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 5 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
26.2%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.68x
You are 1.7x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±7.7%
$146.10 — $170.54

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-24.5% to -21.5%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -23.0% -21.5% to -18.5%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -18.5% to -15.6%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) -15.6% to -12.6%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) -14.1% -12.6% to -9.7%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) -9.7% to -6.7%: 29 occurrences (5.7%) -6.7% to -3.8%: 73 occurrences (14.4%) -5.2% -3.8% to -0.8%: 83 occurrences (16.3%) -0.8% to +2.1%: 69 occurrences (13.6%) +2.1% to +5.1%: 75 occurrences (14.8%) 3.6% +5.1% to +8.0%: 49 occurrences (9.6%) +8.0% to +11.0%: 39 occurrences (7.7%) +11.0% to +14.0%: 22 occurrences (4.3%) 12.5% +14.0% to +16.9%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) +16.9% to +19.9%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +19.9% to +22.8%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 21.3%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 43.9% 26.2% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 20.2% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.05) and kurtosis (2.9).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 52.7% 26.4% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 43.0% 22.0% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (300 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 32.7%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 28.4%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 26.4%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.2%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +10.2%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -9.0%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +22.8%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -24.5%