Finance

ADBE Move Probability $255.07 -1.63 (-0.6%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
3.3%
Stock touched +5.0% ($267.83) at least once during 1 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 1 of 1
Expiration Close Probability
1.9%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 1-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.70x
You are 1.7x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±2.4%
$249.04 — $261.11

Historical 1-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 1-day percentage returns over 521 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-14.0% to -12.6%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -13.3% -12.6% to -11.3%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -11.3% to -10.0%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -10.0% to -8.6%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -9.3% -8.6% to -7.3%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -7.3% to -6.0%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) -6.0% to -4.7%: 9 occurrences (1.7%) -5.3% -4.7% to -3.3%: 15 occurrences (2.9%) -3.3% to -2.0%: 52 occurrences (10.0%) -2.0% to -0.7%: 91 occurrences (17.5%) -1.3% -0.7% to +0.7%: 175 occurrences (33.6%) +0.7% to +2.0%: 108 occurrences (20.7%) +2.0% to +3.3%: 29 occurrences (5.6%) 2.7% +3.3% to +4.7%: 20 occurrences (3.8%) +4.7% to +6.0%: 9 occurrences (1.7%) +6.0% to +7.3%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 6.7%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 3.3% 1.9% Model-free reality across 521 historical 1-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 1.5% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-1.0) and kurtosis (5.98).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 3.9% 2.0% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 2.2% 1.9% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (322 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 37.6%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 33.3%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 27.9%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

1-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.0%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +2.5%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -2.6%
  • Max Historical Gain (1d): +7.3%
  • Max Historical Loss (1d): -14.0%