Finance

ADBE Move Probability $255.07 -1.63 (-0.6%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
43.7%
Stock touched +5.0% ($267.83) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 5 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
22.2%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.96x
You are 2.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±8.9%
$232.48 — $277.67

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-28.9% to -25.7%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -27.3% -25.7% to -22.5%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -22.5% to -19.3%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -19.3% to -16.2%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) -17.8% -16.2% to -13.0%: 24 occurrences (4.7%) -13.0% to -9.8%: 43 occurrences (8.5%) -9.8% to -6.6%: 52 occurrences (10.2%) -8.2% -6.6% to -3.5%: 75 occurrences (14.8%) -3.5% to -0.3%: 77 occurrences (15.2%) -0.3% to +2.9%: 65 occurrences (12.8%) 1.3% +2.9% to +6.1%: 52 occurrences (10.2%) +6.1% to +9.3%: 48 occurrences (9.4%) +9.3% to +12.4%: 32 occurrences (6.3%) 10.8% +12.4% to +15.6%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) +15.6% to +18.8%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +18.8% to +22.0%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) 20.4%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 43.7% 22.2% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 23.0% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-1.0) and kurtosis (5.98).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 58.2% 29.1% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 45.6% 22.3% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (309 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 37.6%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 33.3%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 27.9%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -2.0%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +9.4%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -12.4%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +22.0%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -28.9%