Finance

WEN Move Probability $6.29 -0.23 (-3.6%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
43.3%
Stock touched +5.0% ($6.60) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
15.2%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.86x
You are 2.9x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±11.1%
$5.58 — $6.99

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-21.6% to -18.0%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) -19.8% -18.0% to -14.5%: 20 occurrences (3.9%) -14.5% to -11.0%: 31 occurrences (6.1%) -11.0% to -7.4%: 65 occurrences (12.8%) -9.2% -7.4% to -3.9%: 95 occurrences (18.7%) -3.9% to -0.4%: 107 occurrences (21.1%) -0.4% to +3.2%: 89 occurrences (17.5%) 1.4% +3.2% to +6.7%: 32 occurrences (6.3%) +6.7% to +10.2%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) +10.2% to +13.8%: 18 occurrences (3.5%) 12.0% +13.8% to +17.3%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) +17.3% to +20.9%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) +20.9% to +24.4%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) 22.6% +24.4% to +27.9%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +27.9% to +31.5%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +31.5% to +35.0%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 33.2%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 43.3% 15.2% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 14.1% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (1.26) and kurtosis (10.9).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 66.1% 33.1% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 43.9% 9.9% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (312 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 47.3%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 33.2%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 38.7%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-30% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -2.9%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +9.1%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -11.6%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +35.0%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -21.6%