Finance

WBTN Move Probability $9.84 +0.29 (+3.0%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
62.0%
Stock touched +5.0% ($10.33) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
30.7%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.02x
You are 2.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±18.2%
$8.05 — $11.63

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-33.3% to -27.1%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) -30.2% -27.1% to -20.9%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) -20.9% to -14.7%: 52 occurrences (10.2%) -14.7% to -8.4%: 59 occurrences (11.6%) -11.6% -8.4% to -2.2%: 113 occurrences (22.2%) -2.2% to +4.0%: 97 occurrences (19.1%) +4.0% to +10.2%: 61 occurrences (12.0%) 7.1% +10.2% to +16.5%: 39 occurrences (7.7%) +16.5% to +22.7%: 22 occurrences (4.3%) +22.7% to +28.9%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) 25.8% +28.9% to +35.1%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) +35.1% to +41.4%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +41.4% to +47.6%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) 44.5% +47.6% to +53.8%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +53.8% to +60.0%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +60.0% to +66.3%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) 63.1%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 62.0% 30.7% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 2.3% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (3.39) and kurtosis (49.27).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 78.9% 39.4% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 67.2% 38.2% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (314 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 77.2%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 52.3%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 46.4%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-32% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -1.7%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +20.1%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -16.9%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +66.3%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -33.3%