Finance

USO Move Probability $159.75 -0.93 (-0.6%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
6.0%
Stock touched +5.0% ($167.74) at least once during 1 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 1 of 1
Expiration Close Probability
3.3%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 1-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.82x
You are 1.8x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±2.6%
$155.60 — $163.90

Historical 1-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 1-day percentage returns over 521 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-9.8% to -8.4%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -9.1% -8.4% to -7.0%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -7.0% to -5.5%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -5.5% to -4.1%: 14 occurrences (2.7%) -4.8% -4.1% to -2.7%: 30 occurrences (5.8%) -2.7% to -1.3%: 78 occurrences (15.0%) -1.3% to +0.1%: 128 occurrences (24.6%) -0.6% +0.1% to +1.6%: 131 occurrences (25.1%) +1.6% to +3.0%: 72 occurrences (13.8%) +3.0% to +4.4%: 37 occurrences (7.1%) 3.7% +4.4% to +5.8%: 10 occurrences (1.9%) +5.8% to +7.2%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +7.2% to +8.7%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 7.9% +8.7% to +10.1%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +10.1% to +11.5%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +11.5% to +12.9%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 12.2%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 6.0% 3.3% Model-free reality across 521 historical 1-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 3.9% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.02) and kurtosis (2.5).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 6.0% 3.0% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 4.3% 2.4% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (329 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 41.2%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 33.5%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 27.5%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-19% vs baseline)

1-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.1%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +3.3%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -2.7%
  • Max Historical Gain (1d): +12.9%
  • Max Historical Loss (1d): -9.8%