Finance

USO Move Probability $159.75 -0.93 (-0.6%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
54.3%
Stock touched +5.0% ($167.74) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 5 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
28.7%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.89x
You are 1.9x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±9.7%
$144.23 — $175.27

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-24.6% to -19.8%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -22.2% -19.8% to -14.9%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -14.9% to -10.1%: 20 occurrences (3.9%) -10.1% to -5.3%: 50 occurrences (9.8%) -7.7% -5.3% to -0.5%: 122 occurrences (24.0%) -0.5% to +4.4%: 142 occurrences (28.0%) +4.4% to +9.2%: 79 occurrences (15.6%) 6.8% +9.2% to +14.0%: 31 occurrences (6.1%) +14.0% to +18.8%: 26 occurrences (5.1%) +18.8% to +23.6%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) 21.2% +23.6% to +28.5%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +28.5% to +33.3%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +33.3% to +38.1%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 35.7% +38.1% to +42.9%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +42.9% to +47.8%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +47.8% to +52.6%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 50.2%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 54.3% 28.7% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 25.8% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.02) and kurtosis (2.5).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 61.6% 30.8% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 49.8% 27.3% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (319 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 41.2%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 33.5%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 27.5%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-19% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +1.3%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +14.5%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -7.4%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +52.6%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -24.6%