Finance

UNIT Move Probability $5.36 -0.15 (-2.7%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
67.1%
Stock touched +5.0% ($5.63) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
29.1%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.30x
You are 2.3x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±14.6%
$4.58 — $6.14

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-37.2% to -29.9%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) -33.6% -29.9% to -22.7%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -22.7% to -15.5%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) -15.5% to -8.2%: 63 occurrences (12.4%) -11.8% -8.2% to -1.0%: 148 occurrences (29.1%) -1.0% to +6.2%: 142 occurrences (28.0%) +6.2% to +13.5%: 74 occurrences (14.6%) 9.9% +13.5% to +20.7%: 26 occurrences (5.1%) +20.7% to +28.0%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) +28.0% to +35.2%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) 31.6% +35.2% to +42.4%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +42.4% to +49.7%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +49.7% to +56.9%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 53.3% +56.9% to +64.1%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +64.1% to +71.4%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +71.4% to +78.6%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 75.0%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 67.1% 29.1% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 0.9% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (3.93) and kurtosis (52.86).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 73.8% 36.9% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 71.6% 31.7% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (218 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 61.9%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 74.5%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 45.5%
  • Vol Trend: Expanded (+20% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.2%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +14.2%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -11.7%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +78.6%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -37.2%