Finance

TRIP Move Probability $9.43 -0.09 (-0.9%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
9.4%
Stock touched +5.0% ($9.90) at least once during 1 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 1 of 1
Expiration Close Probability
4.6%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 1-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.04x
You are 2.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±3.5%
$9.10 — $9.76

Historical 1-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 1-day percentage returns over 521 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-25.4% to -22.7%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -24.1% -22.7% to -20.0%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -20.0% to -17.3%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -17.3% to -14.6%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -15.9% -14.6% to -11.8%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -11.8% to -9.1%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -9.1% to -6.4%: 13 occurrences (2.5%) -7.8% -6.4% to -3.7%: 29 occurrences (5.6%) -3.7% to -1.0%: 128 occurrences (24.6%) -1.0% to +1.8%: 220 occurrences (42.2%) 0.4% +1.8% to +4.5%: 94 occurrences (18.0%) +4.5% to +7.2%: 19 occurrences (3.6%) +7.2% to +9.9%: 7 occurrences (1.3%) 8.6% +9.9% to +12.6%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +12.6% to +15.4%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +15.4% to +18.1%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 16.7%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 9.4% 4.6% Model-free reality across 521 historical 1-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 1.4% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.9) and kurtosis (11.49).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 16.7% 8.4% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 10.6% 5.6% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (321 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 56.1%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 39.5%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 43.2%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-30% vs baseline)

1-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.0%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +3.2%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -3.5%
  • Max Historical Gain (1d): +18.1%
  • Max Historical Loss (1d): -25.4%