Finance

TRIP Move Probability $9.43 -0.09 (-0.9%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
60.6%
Stock touched +5.0% ($9.90) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
30.1%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.01x
You are 2.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±13.2%
$8.18 — $10.68

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-31.7% to -27.2%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) -29.5% -27.2% to -22.6%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) -22.6% to -18.1%: 28 occurrences (5.5%) -18.1% to -13.5%: 32 occurrences (6.3%) -15.8% -13.5% to -9.0%: 53 occurrences (10.4%) -9.0% to -4.4%: 74 occurrences (14.6%) -4.4% to +0.1%: 71 occurrences (14.0%) -2.2% +0.1% to +4.7%: 74 occurrences (14.6%) +4.7% to +9.2%: 52 occurrences (10.2%) +9.2% to +13.8%: 37 occurrences (7.3%) 11.5% +13.8% to +18.3%: 27 occurrences (5.3%) +18.3% to +22.9%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) +22.9% to +27.4%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) 25.2% +27.4% to +32.0%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) +32.0% to +36.5%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +36.5% to +41.1%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 38.8%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 60.6% 30.1% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 24.0% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.9) and kurtosis (11.49).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 71.2% 35.6% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 61.4% 31.8% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (308 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 56.1%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 39.5%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 43.2%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-30% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -1.5%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +16.8%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -16.8%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +41.1%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -31.7%