Finance

TRGP Move Probability $295.62 +2.90 (+1.0%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
52.4%
Stock touched +5.0% ($310.41) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 5 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
32.3%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.62x
You are 1.6x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±7.8%
$272.62 — $318.63

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-20.2% to -17.3%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) -18.7% -17.3% to -14.4%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) -14.4% to -11.6%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) -11.6% to -8.7%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) -10.1% -8.7% to -5.8%: 25 occurrences (4.9%) -5.8% to -3.0%: 50 occurrences (9.8%) -3.0% to -0.1%: 90 occurrences (17.7%) -1.5% -0.1% to +2.8%: 97 occurrences (19.1%) +2.8% to +5.6%: 52 occurrences (10.2%) +5.6% to +8.5%: 54 occurrences (10.6%) 7.1% +8.5% to +11.4%: 40 occurrences (7.9%) +11.4% to +14.2%: 31 occurrences (6.1%) +14.2% to +17.1%: 16 occurrences (3.1%) 15.7% +17.1% to +20.0%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) +20.0% to +22.8%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +22.8% to +25.7%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 24.3%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 52.4% 32.3% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 21.2% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.94) and kurtosis (4.88).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 53.1% 26.5% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 54.3% 34.4% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (422 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 33.0%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 27.4%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 26.5%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-17% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +1.7%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +12.6%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -6.8%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +25.7%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -20.2%