TPHS Move Probability $0.10 -0.01 (-9.5%)
Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.
Touch Probability (First Passage)
0.0%
Stock touched +5.0% ($0.10) at least once during 14 trading days.
Expiration Close Probability
0.0%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.00x
You are 1.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±0.0%
$0.09 — $0.10
Historical 14-Day Return Distribution
Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 198 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2025-07-29). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.
Historical returns
Target move zone (+5.0%+)
Target threshold bin
Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models
Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.
| Model / Methodology | Touch Probability | Expiration Close Probability | What It Tells You |
|---|---|---|---|
| Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) | 0.0% | 0.0% | Model-free reality across 198 historical 14-day windows. |
| Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) | — | 0.0% | Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.0) and kurtosis (-3.0). |
| Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) | 0.0% | 0.0% | Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks). |
| Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) | 0.0% | 0.0% | Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (178 matching periods). |
Underlying Volatility Profile
Volatility Metrics
- 1-Year Annualized HV: 0.0%
- Recent 20-Day HV: 0.0%
- Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 0.0%
- Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent
14-Day Return Quantiles
- Median Return: +0.0%
- Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +0.0%
- Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): +0.0%
- Max Historical Gain (14d): +0.0%
- Max Historical Loss (14d): 0.0%