Finance

TM Move Probability $195.01 -1.83 (-0.9%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
36.0%
Stock touched +5.0% ($204.76) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 7 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
22.8%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.58x
You are 1.6x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±6.8%
$181.83 — $208.19

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-16.1% to -13.7%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) -14.9% -13.7% to -11.3%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -11.3% to -8.9%: 22 occurrences (4.3%) -8.9% to -6.4%: 26 occurrences (5.1%) -7.7% -6.4% to -4.0%: 56 occurrences (11.0%) -4.0% to -1.6%: 59 occurrences (11.6%) -1.6% to +0.8%: 92 occurrences (18.1%) -0.4% +0.8% to +3.3%: 94 occurrences (18.5%) +3.3% to +5.7%: 53 occurrences (10.4%) +5.7% to +8.1%: 48 occurrences (9.4%) 6.9% +8.1% to +10.5%: 22 occurrences (4.3%) +10.5% to +13.0%: 18 occurrences (3.5%) +13.0% to +15.4%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 14.2% +15.4% to +17.8%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +17.8% to +20.2%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +20.2% to +22.7%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 21.4%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 36.0% 22.8% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 11.4% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.93) and kurtosis (6.39).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 47.0% 23.5% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 39.0% 23.6% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (305 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 28.7%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 21.2%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 11.2%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-26% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.5%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +7.6%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -7.3%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +22.7%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -16.1%