Finance

TJX Move Probability $145.53 -1.46 (-1.0%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
35.0%
Stock touched +5.0% ($152.81) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 8 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
20.7%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.70x
You are 1.7x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±4.6%
$138.86 — $152.20

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-16.5% to -14.7%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -15.6% -14.7% to -12.8%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -12.8% to -11.0%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -11.0% to -9.1%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) -10.1% -9.1% to -7.3%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) -7.3% to -5.4%: 18 occurrences (3.5%) -5.4% to -3.6%: 30 occurrences (5.9%) -4.5% -3.6% to -1.7%: 54 occurrences (10.6%) -1.7% to +0.1%: 81 occurrences (15.9%) +0.1% to +2.0%: 88 occurrences (17.3%) 1.0% +2.0% to +3.8%: 66 occurrences (13.0%) +3.8% to +5.7%: 60 occurrences (11.8%) +5.7% to +7.5%: 47 occurrences (9.3%) 6.6% +7.5% to +9.4%: 19 occurrences (3.7%) +9.4% to +11.2%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) +11.2% to +13.1%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 12.2%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 35.0% 20.7% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 10.8% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.0) and kurtosis (2.12).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 28.7% 14.4% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 33.3% 21.0% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (405 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 19.5%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 18.1%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 17.4%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.9%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +6.4%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -5.3%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +13.1%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -16.5%