Finance

SPCH Move Probability $10.86 +1.46 (+15.5%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
86.8%
Stock touched +5.0% ($11.40) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
51.3%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.69x
You are 1.7x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±45.2%
$5.95 — $15.77

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 76 historical windows (2026-06-15 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-50.5% to -43.0%: 7 occurrences (9.2%) -46.7% -43.0% to -35.4%: 4 occurrences (5.3%) -35.4% to -27.9%: 4 occurrences (5.3%) -27.9% to -20.4%: 3 occurrences (3.9%) -24.1% -20.4% to -12.9%: 4 occurrences (5.3%) -12.9% to -5.3%: 4 occurrences (5.3%) -5.3% to +2.2%: 10 occurrences (13.2%) -1.6% +2.2% to +9.7%: 10 occurrences (13.2%) +9.7% to +17.3%: 12 occurrences (15.8%) +17.3% to +24.8%: 5 occurrences (6.6%) 21.0% +24.8% to +32.3%: 2 occurrences (2.6%) +32.3% to +39.8%: 3 occurrences (3.9%) +39.8% to +47.4%: 5 occurrences (6.6%) 43.6% +47.4% to +54.9%: 2 occurrences (2.6%) +54.9% to +62.4%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +62.4% to +69.9%: 1 occurrences (1.3%) 66.2%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 86.8% 51.3% Model-free reality across 76 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 22.8% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (3.18) and kurtosis (19.71).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 91.4% 45.7% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 94.3% 62.9% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (35 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 191.6%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 110.5%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 119.8%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-42% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +7.1%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +40.3%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -41.0%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +69.9%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -50.5%