Finance

SPCE Move Probability $2.43 +0.05 (+2.1%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
77.4%
Stock touched +5.0% ($2.55) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
35.4%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.18x
You are 2.2x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±44.4%
$1.35 — $3.51

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-45.3% to +14.0%: 386 occurrences (76.0%) -15.6% +14.0% to +73.3%: 93 occurrences (18.3%) +73.3% to +132.6%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +132.6% to +191.9%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 162.3% +191.9% to +251.2%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +251.2% to +310.5%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +310.5% to +369.8%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 340.2% +369.8% to +429.1%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +429.1% to +488.4%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +488.4% to +547.7%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 518.1% +547.7% to +607.0%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +607.0% to +666.3%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +666.3% to +725.6%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 696.0% +725.6% to +784.9%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +784.9% to +844.2%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +844.2% to +903.5%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 873.9%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 77.4% 35.4% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 0.2% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (12.91) and kurtosis (232.22).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 91.3% 45.6% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 87.1% 60.2% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (93 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 188.5%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 42.0%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 82.8%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-78% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -1.4%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +29.7%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -20.2%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +903.5%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -45.3%