Finance

QDEL Move Probability $14.18 +0.93 (+7.0%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
62.6%
Stock touched +5.0% ($14.89) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
27.0%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.32x
You are 2.3x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±18.4%
$11.57 — $16.79

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-13 to 2026-10-13). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-34.7% to -29.2%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) -31.9% -29.2% to -23.7%: 32 occurrences (6.3%) -23.7% to -18.2%: 38 occurrences (7.5%) -18.2% to -12.8%: 42 occurrences (8.3%) -15.5% -12.8% to -7.3%: 79 occurrences (15.6%) -7.3% to -1.8%: 94 occurrences (18.5%) -1.8% to +3.7%: 66 occurrences (13.0%) 0.9% +3.7% to +9.1%: 46 occurrences (9.1%) +9.1% to +14.6%: 33 occurrences (6.5%) +14.6% to +20.1%: 23 occurrences (4.5%) 17.4% +20.1% to +25.6%: 18 occurrences (3.5%) +25.6% to +31.0%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) +31.0% to +36.5%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) 33.8% +36.5% to +42.0%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +42.0% to +47.5%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +47.5% to +52.9%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 50.2%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 62.6% 27.0% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 25.5% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.04) and kurtosis (12.46).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 79.1% 39.6% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 68.2% 32.1% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (296 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 78.2%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 66.2%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 54.1%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -4.0%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +18.7%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -21.6%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +52.9%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -34.7%