QBTS Move Probability $12.11 +0.34 (+2.9%)
Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.
Touch Probability (First Passage)
39.9%
Stock touched +5.0% ($12.72) at least once during 1 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 1 of 1
Expiration Close Probability
21.3%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 1-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.87x
You are 1.9x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±13.2%
$10.52 — $13.70
Historical 1-Day Return Distribution
Frequency of rolling 1-day percentage returns over 521 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.
Historical returns
Target move zone (+5.0%+)
Target threshold bin
Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models
Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.
| Model / Methodology | Touch Probability | Expiration Close Probability | What It Tells You |
|---|---|---|---|
| Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) | 39.9% | 21.3% | Model-free reality across 521 historical 1-day windows. |
| Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) | — | 0.0% | Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (9.37) and kurtosis (146.88). |
| Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) | 71.1% | 35.5% | Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks). |
| Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) | 26.4% | 14.3% | Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (140 matching periods). |
Underlying Volatility Profile
Volatility Metrics
- 1-Year Annualized HV: 209.0%
- Recent 20-Day HV: 64.2%
- Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 111.0%
- Vol Trend: Compressed (-69% vs baseline)
1-Day Return Quantiles
- Median Return: -0.2%
- Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +11.0%
- Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -7.4%
- Max Historical Gain (1d): +801.3%
- Max Historical Loss (1d): -36.1%