Finance

QBTS Move Probability $12.11 +0.34 (+2.9%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
80.7%
Stock touched +5.0% ($12.72) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 1 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
48.4%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.67x
You are 1.7x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±49.3%
$6.14 — $18.08

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-44.7% to +207.4%: 489 occurrences (96.3%) 81.3% +207.4% to +459.5%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +459.5% to +711.6%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +711.6% to +963.7%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 837.7% +963.7% to +1215.8%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +1215.8% to +1467.9%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +1467.9% to +1720.0%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 1594.0% +1720.0% to +1972.1%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +1972.1% to +2224.2%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +2224.2% to +2476.4%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 2350.3% +2476.4% to +2728.5%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +2728.5% to +2980.6%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +2980.6% to +3232.7%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 3106.6% +3232.7% to +3484.8%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +3484.8% to +3736.9%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +3736.9% to +3989.0%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 3862.9%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 80.7% 48.4% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 1.2% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (9.37) and kurtosis (146.88).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 92.1% 46.1% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 77.2% 59.1% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (127 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 209.0%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 64.2%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 111.0%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-69% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +4.0%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +79.8%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -22.4%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +3989.0%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -44.7%