Finance

PAYS Move Probability $15.61 +0.43 (+2.9%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
73.0%
Stock touched +5.0% ($16.39) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
39.4%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.86x
You are 1.9x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±16.0%
$13.11 — $18.11

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-35.9% to -28.1%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) -32.0% -28.1% to -20.4%: 20 occurrences (3.9%) -20.4% to -12.6%: 28 occurrences (5.5%) -12.6% to -4.9%: 120 occurrences (23.6%) -8.8% -4.9% to +2.8%: 105 occurrences (20.7%) +2.8% to +10.6%: 82 occurrences (16.1%) +10.6% to +18.3%: 43 occurrences (8.5%) 14.4% +18.3% to +26.0%: 33 occurrences (6.5%) +26.0% to +33.8%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) +33.8% to +41.5%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) 37.6% +41.5% to +49.2%: 16 occurrences (3.1%) +49.2% to +57.0%: 16 occurrences (3.1%) +57.0% to +64.7%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) 60.9% +64.7% to +72.5%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) +72.5% to +80.2%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +80.2% to +87.9%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 84.1%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 73.0% 39.4% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 19.4% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.61) and kurtosis (13.09).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 76.1% 38.0% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 72.6% 38.2% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (325 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 68.0%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 46.6%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 50.1%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-32% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.7%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +41.1%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -13.4%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +87.9%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -35.9%