Finance

PAYO Move Probability $7.17 +0.03 (+0.4%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
47.6%
Stock touched +5.0% ($7.52) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 5 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
22.6%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.10x
You are 2.1x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±11.4%
$6.35 — $7.98

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-34.4% to -29.6%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -32.0% -29.6% to -24.8%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) -24.8% to -20.0%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -20.0% to -15.2%: 19 occurrences (3.7%) -17.6% -15.2% to -10.4%: 20 occurrences (3.9%) -10.4% to -5.6%: 54 occurrences (10.6%) -5.6% to -0.8%: 99 occurrences (19.5%) -3.2% -0.8% to +4.0%: 171 occurrences (33.7%) +4.0% to +8.8%: 60 occurrences (11.8%) +8.8% to +13.7%: 33 occurrences (6.5%) 11.3% +13.7% to +18.5%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) +18.5% to +23.3%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +23.3% to +28.1%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) 25.7% +28.1% to +32.9%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +32.9% to +37.7%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +37.7% to +42.5%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) 40.1%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 47.6% 22.6% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 12.5% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.08) and kurtosis (14.19).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 66.9% 33.5% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 0.0% 0.0% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (16 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 48.5%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 3.2%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 36.8%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-93% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.0%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +10.9%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -10.9%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +42.5%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -34.4%