Finance

OXY Move Probability $62.70 -0.23 (-0.4%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
4.0%
Stock touched +5.0% ($65.84) at least once during 1 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 1 of 1
Expiration Close Probability
1.3%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 1-day window.
The Touch Multiple
3.00x
You are 3.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±2.2%
$61.31 — $64.10

Historical 1-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 1-day percentage returns over 521 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-11.0% to -9.6%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -10.3% -9.6% to -8.2%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -8.2% to -6.8%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -6.8% to -5.4%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -6.1% -5.4% to -4.0%: 12 occurrences (2.3%) -4.0% to -2.6%: 25 occurrences (4.8%) -2.6% to -1.2%: 72 occurrences (13.8%) -1.9% -1.2% to +0.2%: 154 occurrences (29.6%) +0.2% to +1.6%: 144 occurrences (27.6%) +1.6% to +3.0%: 68 occurrences (13.1%) 2.3% +3.0% to +4.4%: 26 occurrences (5.0%) +4.4% to +5.8%: 9 occurrences (1.7%) +5.8% to +7.2%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 6.5% +7.2% to +8.6%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +8.6% to +10.0%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +10.0% to +11.4%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 10.7%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 4.0% 1.3% Model-free reality across 521 historical 1-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 3.0% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.4) and kurtosis (3.69).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 2.9% 1.4% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 3.9% 1.2% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (335 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 35.4%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 26.8%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 27.6%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-24% vs baseline)

1-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.1%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +2.5%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -2.4%
  • Max Historical Gain (1d): +11.4%
  • Max Historical Loss (1d): -11.0%