Finance

OXY Move Probability $62.70 -0.23 (-0.4%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
57.5%
Stock touched +5.0% ($65.84) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 5 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
27.6%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.09x
You are 2.1x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±8.3%
$57.48 — $67.93

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-24.7% to -21.6%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -23.2% -21.6% to -18.6%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) -18.6% to -15.5%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -15.5% to -12.4%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) -13.9% -12.4% to -9.3%: 21 occurrences (4.1%) -9.3% to -6.2%: 30 occurrences (5.9%) -6.2% to -3.1%: 65 occurrences (12.8%) -4.7% -3.1% to -0.0%: 76 occurrences (15.0%) -0.0% to +3.1%: 103 occurrences (20.3%) +3.1% to +6.1%: 67 occurrences (13.2%) 4.6% +6.1% to +9.2%: 59 occurrences (11.6%) +9.2% to +12.3%: 26 occurrences (5.1%) +12.3% to +15.4%: 20 occurrences (3.9%) 13.9% +15.4% to +18.5%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) +18.5% to +21.6%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +21.6% to +24.7%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 23.1%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 57.5% 27.6% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 22.1% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.4) and kurtosis (3.69).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 55.8% 27.9% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 54.8% 24.5% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (330 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 35.4%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 26.8%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 27.6%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-24% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +1.0%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +9.9%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -8.6%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +24.7%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -24.7%