Finance

ONIT Move Probability $25.35 -0.61 (-2.3%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
53.5%
Stock touched +5.0% ($26.62) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 5 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
30.9%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.73x
You are 1.7x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±10.5%
$22.69 — $28.01

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-27.0% to -23.5%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) -25.2% -23.5% to -19.9%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) -19.9% to -16.4%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) -16.4% to -12.9%: 30 occurrences (5.9%) -14.6% -12.9% to -9.3%: 39 occurrences (7.7%) -9.3% to -5.8%: 45 occurrences (8.9%) -5.8% to -2.2%: 53 occurrences (10.4%) -4.0% -2.2% to +1.3%: 85 occurrences (16.7%) +1.3% to +4.8%: 69 occurrences (13.6%) +4.8% to +8.4%: 55 occurrences (10.8%) 6.6% +8.4% to +11.9%: 42 occurrences (8.3%) +11.9% to +15.4%: 22 occurrences (4.3%) +15.4% to +19.0%: 20 occurrences (3.9%) 17.2% +19.0% to +22.5%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) +22.5% to +26.1%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) +26.1% to +29.6%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 27.8%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 53.5% 30.9% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 18.8% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.06) and kurtosis (7.7).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 64.2% 32.1% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 50.0% 27.7% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (314 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 44.6%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 49.2%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 24.8%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.5%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +13.8%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -13.9%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +29.6%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -27.0%