Finance

ODD Move Probability $22.89 +0.49 (+2.2%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
69.5%
Stock touched +5.0% ($24.03) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
34.4%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.02x
You are 2.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±28.4%
$16.39 — $29.39

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 509 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-22). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-28.8% to -8.0%: 139 occurrences (27.3%) -18.4% -8.0% to +12.9%: 263 occurrences (51.7%) +12.9% to +33.7%: 64 occurrences (12.6%) +33.7% to +54.5%: 21 occurrences (4.1%) 44.1% +54.5% to +75.3%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) +75.3% to +96.1%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +96.1% to +117.0%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 106.6% +117.0% to +137.8%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +137.8% to +158.6%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +158.6% to +179.4%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 169.0% +179.4% to +200.2%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +200.2% to +221.1%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +221.1% to +241.9%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 231.5% +241.9% to +262.7%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +262.7% to +283.5%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +283.5% to +304.3%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 293.9%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 69.5% 34.4% Model-free reality across 509 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 0.0% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (11.39) and kurtosis (210.23).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 86.4% 43.2% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 63.4% 21.8% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (243 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 120.4%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 55.8%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 53.0%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-54% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.2%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +28.1%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -16.7%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +304.3%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -28.8%