Finance

NOK Move Probability $8.16 -1.10 (-11.8%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
67.2%
Stock touched +5.0% ($8.57) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 5 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
41.1%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.64x
You are 1.6x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±11.8%
$7.20 — $9.13

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 509 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-22). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-34.7% to -29.4%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -32.0% -29.4% to -24.0%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -24.0% to -18.6%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) -18.6% to -13.3%: 23 occurrences (4.5%) -15.9% -13.3% to -7.9%: 49 occurrences (9.6%) -7.9% to -2.5%: 61 occurrences (12.0%) -2.5% to +2.8%: 93 occurrences (18.3%) 0.2% +2.8% to +8.2%: 140 occurrences (27.5%) +8.2% to +13.6%: 58 occurrences (11.4%) +13.6% to +19.0%: 23 occurrences (4.5%) 16.3% +19.0% to +24.3%: 19 occurrences (3.7%) +24.3% to +29.7%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) +29.7% to +35.1%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) 32.4% +35.1% to +40.4%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +40.4% to +45.8%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +45.8% to +51.2%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 48.5%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 67.2% 41.1% Model-free reality across 509 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 23.2% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.23) and kurtosis (5.93).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 67.8% 33.9% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 75.4% 48.5% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (167 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 49.9%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 67.3%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 34.3%
  • Vol Trend: Expanded (+35% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +3.4%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +17.7%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -11.5%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +51.2%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -34.7%