Finance

NOG Move Probability $27.45 -0.11 (-0.4%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
61.8%
Stock touched +5.0% ($28.83) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
34.6%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.78x
You are 1.8x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±11.5%
$24.30 — $30.61

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-32.0% to -27.9%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -29.9% -27.9% to -23.8%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) -23.8% to -19.7%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) -19.7% to -15.6%: 19 occurrences (3.7%) -17.6% -15.6% to -11.5%: 38 occurrences (7.5%) -11.5% to -7.4%: 65 occurrences (12.8%) -7.4% to -3.3%: 65 occurrences (12.8%) -5.3% -3.3% to +0.8%: 62 occurrences (12.2%) +0.8% to +4.9%: 64 occurrences (12.6%) +4.9% to +9.0%: 60 occurrences (11.8%) 7.0% +9.0% to +13.1%: 54 occurrences (10.6%) +13.1% to +17.2%: 30 occurrences (5.9%) +17.2% to +21.3%: 19 occurrences (3.7%) 19.3% +21.3% to +25.4%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +25.4% to +29.5%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +29.5% to +33.6%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 31.5%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 61.8% 34.6% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 26.1% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.17) and kurtosis (4.81).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 67.1% 33.5% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 50.2% 29.1% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (203 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 48.7%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 31.8%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 35.6%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-35% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.0%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +14.4%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -13.5%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +33.6%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -32.0%