Finance

MNKD Move Probability $3.05 -0.05 (-1.5%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
10.7%
Stock touched +5.0% ($3.20) at least once during 1 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 1 of 1
Expiration Close Probability
5.2%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 1-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.07x
You are 2.1x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±3.9%
$2.93 — $3.17

Historical 1-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 1-day percentage returns over 521 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-37.1% to -33.3%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -35.2% -33.3% to -29.4%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -29.4% to -25.5%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -25.5% to -21.6%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -23.6% -21.6% to -17.8%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -17.8% to -13.9%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -13.9% to -10.0%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -12.0% -10.0% to -6.2%: 9 occurrences (1.7%) -6.2% to -2.3%: 97 occurrences (18.6%) -2.3% to +1.6%: 272 occurrences (52.2%) -0.3% +1.6% to +5.5%: 117 occurrences (22.5%) +5.5% to +9.3%: 16 occurrences (3.1%) +9.3% to +13.2%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 11.3% +13.2% to +17.1%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +17.1% to +21.0%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +21.0% to +24.8%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 22.9%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 10.7% 5.2% Model-free reality across 521 historical 1-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 0.0% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-2.28) and kurtosis (39.53).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 21.5% 10.8% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 12.3% 6.6% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (243 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 62.5%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 75.2%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 50.7%
  • Vol Trend: Expanded (+20% vs baseline)

1-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.2%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +3.6%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -3.7%
  • Max Historical Gain (1d): +24.8%
  • Max Historical Loss (1d): -37.1%