Finance

MNKD Move Probability $3.05 -0.05 (-1.5%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
64.0%
Stock touched +5.0% ($3.20) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
27.6%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.32x
You are 2.3x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±14.7%
$2.60 — $3.50

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-54.0% to -47.1%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) -50.6% -47.1% to -40.2%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -40.2% to -33.2%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -33.2% to -26.3%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -29.8% -26.3% to -19.4%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) -19.4% to -12.4%: 24 occurrences (4.7%) -12.4% to -5.5%: 123 occurrences (24.2%) -9.0% -5.5% to +1.4%: 137 occurrences (27.0%) +1.4% to +8.3%: 113 occurrences (22.2%) +8.3% to +15.3%: 46 occurrences (9.1%) 11.8% +15.3% to +22.2%: 22 occurrences (4.3%) +22.2% to +29.1%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) +29.1% to +36.0%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) 32.6% +36.0% to +43.0%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +43.0% to +49.9%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +49.9% to +56.8%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 53.4%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 64.0% 27.6% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 9.0% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-2.28) and kurtosis (39.53).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 74.1% 37.0% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 71.3% 40.0% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (230 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 62.5%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 75.2%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 50.7%
  • Vol Trend: Expanded (+20% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -1.4%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +13.5%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -11.8%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +56.8%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -54.0%