Finance

METU Move Probability $28.04 +0.30 (+1.1%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to METU Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
69.7%
Stock touched +5.0% ($29.44) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
37.0%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.88x
You are 1.9x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±18.3%
$22.91 — $33.17

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-38.3% to -31.7%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) -35.0% -31.7% to -25.0%: 23 occurrences (4.5%) -25.0% to -18.3%: 36 occurrences (7.1%) -18.3% to -11.6%: 47 occurrences (9.3%) -14.9% -11.6% to -4.9%: 83 occurrences (16.3%) -4.9% to +1.8%: 78 occurrences (15.4%) +1.8% to +8.5%: 73 occurrences (14.4%) 5.1% +8.5% to +15.2%: 44 occurrences (8.7%) +15.2% to +21.8%: 48 occurrences (9.4%) +21.8% to +28.5%: 19 occurrences (3.7%) 25.2% +28.5% to +35.2%: 20 occurrences (3.9%) +35.2% to +41.9%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) +41.9% to +48.6%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 45.2% +48.6% to +55.3%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +55.3% to +62.0%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +62.0% to +68.7%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 65.3%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 69.7% 37.0% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 32.5% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.08) and kurtosis (5.37).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 79.0% 39.5% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 72.1% 38.6% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (308 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 77.7%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 80.3%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 50.5%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -1.0%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +25.3%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -21.0%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +68.7%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -38.3%