Finance

LMT Move Probability $583.31 +31.34 (+5.7%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
42.6%
Stock touched +5.0% ($612.48) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 8 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
24.0%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.78x
You are 1.8x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±6.5%
$545.16 — $621.46

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 509 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-22). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-19.5% to -16.9%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -18.2% -16.9% to -14.2%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) -14.2% to -11.6%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -11.6% to -9.0%: 29 occurrences (5.7%) -10.3% -9.0% to -6.3%: 36 occurrences (7.1%) -6.3% to -3.7%: 72 occurrences (14.1%) -3.7% to -1.0%: 86 occurrences (16.9%) -2.3% -1.0% to +1.6%: 68 occurrences (13.4%) +1.6% to +4.3%: 56 occurrences (11.0%) +4.3% to +6.9%: 75 occurrences (14.7%) 5.6% +6.9% to +9.6%: 36 occurrences (7.1%) +9.6% to +12.2%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) +12.2% to +14.8%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) 13.5% +14.8% to +17.5%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) +17.5% to +20.1%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) +20.1% to +22.8%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 21.4%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 42.6% 24.0% Model-free reality across 509 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 11.1% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.65) and kurtosis (7.32).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 45.6% 22.8% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 41.0% 24.1% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (344 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 27.7%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 30.2%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 21.3%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.6%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +8.0%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -8.2%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +22.8%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -19.5%