Finance

KMI Move Probability $33.99 +0.40 (+1.2%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
0.6%
Stock touched +5.0% ($35.69) at least once during 1 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 1 of 1
Expiration Close Probability
0.2%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 1-day window.
The Touch Multiple
3.00x
You are 3.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±1.5%
$33.48 — $34.50

Historical 1-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 1-day percentage returns over 521 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-9.2% to -8.2%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -8.7% -8.2% to -7.2%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -7.2% to -6.2%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -6.2% to -5.2%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -5.7% -5.2% to -4.2%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -4.2% to -3.3%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -3.3% to -2.3%: 15 occurrences (2.9%) -2.8% -2.3% to -1.3%: 48 occurrences (9.2%) -1.3% to -0.3%: 113 occurrences (21.7%) -0.3% to +0.7%: 171 occurrences (32.8%) 0.2% +0.7% to +1.7%: 103 occurrences (19.8%) +1.7% to +2.7%: 49 occurrences (9.4%) +2.7% to +3.7%: 8 occurrences (1.5%) 3.2% +3.7% to +4.7%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +4.7% to +5.7%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +5.7% to +6.7%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 6.2%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 0.6% 0.2% Model-free reality across 521 historical 1-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 64.7% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-1.0) and kurtosis (6.51).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 0.1% 0.1% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 0.5% 0.2% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (406 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 23.8%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 25.0%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 21.6%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

1-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.1%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +1.8%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -1.6%
  • Max Historical Gain (1d): +6.7%
  • Max Historical Loss (1d): -9.2%