Finance

KMI Move Probability $33.99 +0.40 (+1.2%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
40.9%
Stock touched +5.0% ($35.69) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 7 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
21.3%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.93x
You are 1.9x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±5.6%
$32.08 — $35.90

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-12.9% to -11.0%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -11.9% -11.0% to -9.0%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -9.0% to -7.1%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) -7.1% to -5.1%: 24 occurrences (4.7%) -6.1% -5.1% to -3.2%: 42 occurrences (8.3%) -3.2% to -1.3%: 70 occurrences (13.8%) -1.3% to +0.7%: 81 occurrences (15.9%) -0.3% +0.7% to +2.6%: 86 occurrences (16.9%) +2.6% to +4.6%: 66 occurrences (13.0%) +4.6% to +6.5%: 34 occurrences (6.7%) 5.5% +6.5% to +8.4%: 27 occurrences (5.3%) +8.4% to +10.4%: 25 occurrences (4.9%) +10.4% to +12.3%: 19 occurrences (3.7%) 11.3% +12.3% to +14.2%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +14.2% to +16.2%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +16.2% to +18.1%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 17.2%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 40.9% 21.3% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 10.1% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-1.0) and kurtosis (6.51).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 38.4% 19.2% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 41.0% 21.1% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (393 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 23.8%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 25.0%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 21.6%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +1.0%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +8.6%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -4.9%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +18.1%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -12.9%