Finance

IOVA Move Probability $14.62 -0.25 (-1.7%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
28.0%
Stock touched +5.0% ($15.35) at least once during 1 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 1 of 1
Expiration Close Probability
14.2%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 1-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.97x
You are 2.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±6.4%
$13.68 — $15.56

Historical 1-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 1-day percentage returns over 521 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-44.8% to -39.3%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -42.0% -39.3% to -33.8%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -33.8% to -28.2%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -28.2% to -22.7%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -25.5% -22.7% to -17.2%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -17.2% to -11.7%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -11.7% to -6.2%: 39 occurrences (7.5%) -9.0% -6.2% to -0.7%: 189 occurrences (36.3%) -0.7% to +4.8%: 207 occurrences (39.7%) +4.8% to +10.3%: 51 occurrences (9.8%) 7.6% +10.3% to +15.8%: 19 occurrences (3.6%) +15.8% to +21.3%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +21.3% to +26.9%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 24.1% +26.9% to +32.4%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +32.4% to +37.9%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +37.9% to +43.4%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 40.6%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 28.0% 14.2% Model-free reality across 521 historical 1-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 2.5% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.72) and kurtosis (16.94).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 44.9% 22.5% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 27.8% 14.7% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (299 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 102.3%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 117.2%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 74.7%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

1-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.3%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +6.4%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -5.8%
  • Max Historical Gain (1d): +43.4%
  • Max Historical Loss (1d): -44.8%