Finance

IOVA Move Probability $14.62 -0.25 (-1.7%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
79.1%
Stock touched +5.0% ($15.35) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
39.8%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.99x
You are 2.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±24.1%
$11.09 — $18.15

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-54.0% to -42.7%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) -48.3% -42.7% to -31.4%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) -31.4% to -20.1%: 35 occurrences (6.9%) -20.1% to -8.8%: 84 occurrences (16.5%) -14.4% -8.8% to +2.6%: 127 occurrences (25.0%) +2.6% to +13.9%: 114 occurrences (22.4%) +13.9% to +25.2%: 49 occurrences (9.6%) 19.5% +25.2% to +36.5%: 32 occurrences (6.3%) +36.5% to +47.8%: 16 occurrences (3.1%) +47.8% to +59.1%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) 53.4% +59.1% to +70.4%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +70.4% to +81.7%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +81.7% to +93.0%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) 87.3% +93.0% to +104.3%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +104.3% to +115.6%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +115.6% to +126.9%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 121.2%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 79.1% 39.8% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 31.0% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.72) and kurtosis (16.94).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 84.0% 42.0% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 76.9% 40.6% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (286 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 102.3%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 117.2%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 74.7%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.8%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +30.9%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -21.9%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +126.9%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -54.0%