Finance

IONQ Move Probability $32.28 +1.02 (+3.2%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
35.9%
Stock touched +5.0% ($33.89) at least once during 1 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 1 of 1
Expiration Close Probability
20.0%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 1-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.80x
You are 1.8x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±6.9%
$30.05 — $34.51

Historical 1-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 1-day percentage returns over 521 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-39.1% to -34.3%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -36.7% -34.3% to -29.6%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -29.6% to -24.9%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -24.9% to -20.2%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -22.5% -20.2% to -15.4%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -15.4% to -10.7%: 10 occurrences (1.9%) -10.7% to -6.0%: 59 occurrences (11.3%) -8.3% -6.0% to -1.2%: 147 occurrences (28.2%) -1.2% to +3.5%: 165 occurrences (31.7%) +3.5% to +8.2%: 87 occurrences (16.7%) 5.8% +8.2% to +12.9%: 27 occurrences (5.2%) +12.9% to +17.7%: 13 occurrences (2.5%) +17.7% to +22.4%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) 20.0% +22.4% to +27.1%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +27.1% to +31.8%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +31.8% to +36.6%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 34.2%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 35.9% 20.0% Model-free reality across 521 historical 1-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 11.8% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.01) and kurtosis (6.48).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 48.1% 24.0% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 30.7% 18.2% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (296 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 109.8%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 76.8%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 90.8%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-30% vs baseline)

1-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.2%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +8.1%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -6.8%
  • Max Historical Gain (1d): +36.6%
  • Max Historical Loss (1d): -39.1%